MacroXX

Positioning for the Next Move in Gold and Oil

MacroXX — Thu, 21 May 2026 19:32:07 GMT

With this post, we at MacroXX are sharing our current gold and oil strategy and how we are thinking about positioning in the current macro environment.

Free subscribers get our market views and select…

Positioning for the Next Move in Gold and Oil

MacroXX — Thu, 21 May 2026 18:50:08 GMT

With this post, we at MacroXX are sharing our current gold and oil strategy and how we are thinking about positioning in the current macro environment.

Free subscribers get our market views and select…

The Lunch Effect: What's Really Happening?

MacroXX — Wed, 20 May 2026 16:14:35 GMT

At MacroXX, we spend a lot of time studying repeatable intraday market behavior—and one pattern we use often is something traders call the “Lunch Effect.”

This pattern describes a predictable intraday…

Gold, War, and Inflation: Inside the Market’s Biggest Macro Trade of 2026

MacroXX — Tue, 19 May 2026 18:19:23 GMT

At MacroXX, we believe gold’s move since the start of 2026 reflects something much larger than a temporary geopolitical spike.

What we are witnessing is a broad repricing of macroeconomic and geopolit…

Reading the Cycle

MacroXX — Fri, 08 May 2026 18:01:11 GMT

Economic indicators are often presented as a long list of data points—GDP, unemployment, inflation, PMIs—without a clear framework for how they fit together.

There is one framework that cuts through t…

The U.S. Isn't Decoupled. It's Absorbing the Shock

MacroXX — Fri, 08 May 2026 15:18:10 GMT

Global markets look calm—until you zoom in. Then the cracks become hard to ignore.

Oil is swinging on every Middle East headline. Trade flows remain exposed to energy disruptions. And despite all of t…

Reading the VIX: Fear Signal or Buying Opportunity?

MacroXX — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 13:11:03 GMT

The VIX is one of the most important measures of market sentiment because it captures how much uncertainty investors are pricing into the S&P 500. Often described as Wall Street’s fear gauge, it tend…

Mastering Mean Reversion - 1

MacroXX — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 18:08:52 GMT

At MacroXX, we believe consistent outperformance is possible with the right discipline, process, and patience. One approach we respect is mean reversion, which, when used well, can generate strong re…

A Fragile Truce, a Shifting World

MacroXX — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 18:05:57 GMT

The world is entering a new and more uncertain phase. Here at MacroXX, our view is that the oil crisis may be over, or it may not be. The ceasefire may hold, or it may not be. But one thing is alread…

France’s Quiet Gold Repatriation — and the Revival of Monetary Sovereignty

MacroXX — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:19:30 GMT

In a move that went largely unnoticed, the Bank of France quietly brought all of its gold reserves back under domestic control, ending decades of reliance on vaults in the United States and the Unite…

The US-Iran War Is a Regional War With Global Economic Consequences

MacroXX — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:40:31 GMT

The war began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched a massive opening wave of strikes on Iran’s air defenses, missile systems, command-and-control sites, and military infrastruc…

Oil, Ultimatums, and the Gulf

MacroXX — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 13:56:52 GMT

Trading a Weaponized Oil Market

We think traders and investors need to treat this US–Iran war not as a one‑off “shock,” but as the start of a new regime where the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions policy, a…

The Petrodollar Fracture

MacroXX — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 21:13:01 GMT

Before we begin, a quick note: this post is not about forecasting where oil prices will go or how political statements—whether from Washington, Tehran, or elsewhere—might affect short‑term moves. Tha…

Paid Post: Our Latest Oil‑Market Positioning

MacroXX — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:51:22 GMT

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil back to the center of global macro discussions. Volatility in both crude prices and energy‑linked assets has surged, and positioning has become increasingly crowded across futures, ETFs, and options.

In this environment, short‑term moves are being driven as much by headline risk and shifts in perceived geopolitical premium as by traditional supply‑and‑demand data. Markets are reacting sharply to developments around infrastructure, export routes, and military signaling.

Because of this, we have been looking at tightly defined, time‑bounded trades in the oil space. The goal is not to make a long‑term call on where crude “should” be, but to structure positions that are explicitly linked to the current, unusually event‑driven regime.

For free readers, this is where today’s post ends. Paid subscribers can see the exact structure, sizing, and risk framing of the trade we have just implemented.

US Backs Down on Russian Oil Sanctions

MacroXX — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 11:22:21 GMT

Just weeks after pressuring India to curb Russian oil imports, the U.S. issued a 30-day waiver letting Indian refiners buy Russian crude already loaded onto tankers before March 5. This about-face la…

Oil, War, and the Limits of Control

MacroXX — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 21:03:52 GMT

The new war brewing between Iran and the U.S.–Israel coalition has upended assumptions that the world was easing back toward stability. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of the world…

Geopolitics, Macro Shocks, and the Iran–US Test

MacroXX — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 20:52:26 GMT

Every week, a new geopolitical story is supposed to “change everything.” Most don’t. When you look at growth, inflation, jobs, and profits a few years later, many “historic” events leave barely a mac…

Daily Newsletter 2/24/26

MacroXX — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 18:26:36 GMT

Equities reflect a stellar earnings season and robust estimate revisions—albeit now slowing—yet the S&P 500's year-to-date performance lingers near zero, puzzling given the underlying strength.

Cryptocurrencies' sharp reversal baffles observers, especially as institutional adoption accelerates, just as corporate profits expand and forecasts trend upward, though decelerating.

The market is currently grappling with notable tail risks stemming from the potential for escalation into a broader Iran-related conflict, where simmering US-Iran nuclear tensions could rapidly intensify through miscalculations, proxy confrontations in the Middle East, or direct military responses over unresolved issues like uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. This lingering uncertainty acts as a subtle but persistent drag on investor confidence, amplifying volatility in energy markets and safe-haven assets while underscoring the fragility of global stability amid ongoing diplomatic stalemates.

We maintain a constructive outlook for commodities over the medium to long haul, particularly gold, silver, and select others, bolstered by persistent Iran conflict uncertainties weighing on sentiment.

Technology valuations had reached extreme levels, leaving little margin for error, while sector and factor rotations were pushed to unprecedented extremes, signaling widespread overcrowding.

Fed speakers like Goolsbee urge patience on rate cuts until inflation convincingly retreats, with no policy pivot anticipated before mid-year.

OUR TRADES

We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.

Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.

Summary: Most of our options positions that expired on February 20th unfortunately closed out of the money, resulting in a relatively significant loss equivalent to 5.8% of our portfolio. We still have a couple of other options positions outstanding, and in particular, our NUGT and SILJ positions appear poised to offset the total loss and potentially return the overall portfolio to positive territory.

Daily Newsletter 2/10/26

MacroXX — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:25:22 GMT

One thing is clear in today’s markets: uncertainty is likely to persist longer than most investors anticipated. Indexes remain range‑bound, yet the Dow is still trading above 50,000, while the rapid expansion of AI is creating significant challenges for many businesses. Elevated capital expenditure requirements are straining balance sheets, and previously cash‑rich large technology firms are increasingly turning to traditional financing. Japan’s recent elections have further complicated the global market backdrop.

Japan’s recent election, which handed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party a powerful mandate, is likely to reinforce expectations of prolonged fiscal stimulus and structural reform, with important implications for global carry trades and the Japanese bond market. As investors anticipate continued or expanded government spending and potential tax cuts, upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields becomes more likely, even if the Bank of Japan leans against sharp moves through purchases and yield curve control–style tools. A steeper JGB yield curve would narrow the rate differential that has underpinned the yen-funded carry trade, where global investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher‑yielding foreign assets; if markets start to price a more meaningful normalization of Japanese rates, some of these positions could unwind, supporting a stronger yen and adding volatility across risk assets. At the same time, if fiscal stimulus boosts growth without a disorderly jump in yields, domestic investors may gradually find local bonds more attractive relative to foreign debt, further reshaping flows that have long supported global fixed-income markets.

Canceling Japan's yen carry trade would likely pressure U.S. financial markets through forced asset sales and a stronger yen.

A yen carry trade unwind would trigger U.S. equity sell-offs, particularly in tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq, with S&P 500 drops, echoing the August 2024 episode. Bond markets would face stress from lower Treasury demand as capital flows back to Japan amid rising JGB yields and a shrinking yield spread. Meanwhile, yen strength would raise dollar funding costs, fueling currency swings, risk aversion, and VIX spikes.

However, one key factor remains: the bond vigilantes. Fiscal stimulus must ultimately win their approval as well.

So, how should we interpret these developments? Recent market behavior has been challenging to decipher, with asset prices often reacting sharply to virtually any news—positive or negative—well beyond what we would typically expect. While financial markets naturally respond to new information, the magnitude of these moves stands out. Fundamentally, we do not yet see significant fractures in the U.S. economy, aside from weakening consumer confidence, an alarming rise in credit usage among households, and some emerging signs of stress in the labor market, all of which understandably raise concerns for some investors. That said, we are not overly worried at this stage and believe markets are largely in a holding pattern ahead of the next U.S. CPI release on Friday at 8:30 a.m., which will report January’s inflation data.

In summary, we are maintaining our current positions for now and added a single new position today, which was shared exclusively with paid subscribers.

Don’t miss a move—subscribe for daily updates and instant trade alerts that keep you ahead of the market.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 2/9/26

MacroXX — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 22:31:42 GMT

Markets have rebounded, with precious metals (particularly gold and silver) recovering last week’s losses. Bitcoin has stabilized around $70,000, the Dow has surpassed 50,000 for the first time ever, and US-Iran tensions have eased. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s inflation data—everything appears to be returning to normal. However, the underlying uncertainties persist. The economy remains robust, making it challenging for the Fed to satisfy Trump, though it may still cut rates once or twice.

Achieving the balance sheet reduction that Warsh advocates would be difficult to accomplish rapidly. It could be done gradually, at a slightly faster pace than Powell would have pursued.

Warsh also seeks to ease regulatory capital requirements for banks, enabling them to purchase Treasuries rather than relying on the Fed.

The dollar is declining from its cyclically overvalued position toward neutral valuation—or potentially even becoming cheap. This decline also reflects a secular trend: major economies no longer wish to depend on an unreliable U.S. and are seeking to diversify away from it. The strongest alternatives remain gold and the Swiss franc, though dollar liquidity will still be essential for global trade.

Regarding international positions: We’ve decided to stay away from any Japan trade for now, though we may consider entering later this week. We’re still avoiding all Argentinian exposure and are looking to build more positions in Europe.

Regarding gold and silver positions: As you know, we extended our exposure last week. Some of our precious metal options are due on 2/20/26, with others expiring later in March. We expect many of them to end up in-the-money. As we’ve repeated many times, we remain medium- to long-term bullish here.

Regarding our defense position: We’re still holding. While US-Iran tensions have eased, along with the Greenland situation, geopolitical shifts continue to occur at a rapid pace. Thus, we’re maintaining these positions.

Regarding our financial exposure: We closed our KBWB position last week but are still holding XLF.

Another sector worth monitoring closely is housing. With potential deregulation and the upcoming midterm elections, affordability is likely to remain a key topic of discussion in the months ahead.

Don’t miss a move—subscribe for daily updates and instant trade alerts that keep you ahead of the market.