MacroXX

France’s Quiet Gold Repatriation — and the Revival of Monetary Sovereignty

MacroXX — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:19:30 GMT

In a move that went largely unnoticed, the Bank of France quietly brought all of its gold reserves back under domestic control, ending decades of reliance on vaults in the United States and the Unite…

The US-Iran War Is a Regional War With Global Economic Consequences

MacroXX — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:40:31 GMT

The war began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched a massive opening wave of strikes on Iran’s air defenses, missile systems, command-and-control sites, and military infrastruc…

Oil, Ultimatums, and the Gulf

MacroXX — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 13:56:52 GMT

Trading a Weaponized Oil Market

We think traders and investors need to treat this US–Iran war not as a one‑off “shock,” but as the start of a new regime where the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions policy, a…

The Petrodollar Fracture

MacroXX — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 21:13:01 GMT

Before we begin, a quick note: this post is not about forecasting where oil prices will go or how political statements—whether from Washington, Tehran, or elsewhere—might affect short‑term moves. Tha…

Paid Post: Our Latest Oil‑Market Positioning

MacroXX — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:51:22 GMT

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil back to the center of global macro discussions. Volatility in both crude prices and energy‑linked assets has surged, and positioning has become increasingly crowded across futures, ETFs, and options.

In this environment, short‑term moves are being driven as much by headline risk and shifts in perceived geopolitical premium as by traditional supply‑and‑demand data. Markets are reacting sharply to developments around infrastructure, export routes, and military signaling.

Because of this, we have been looking at tightly defined, time‑bounded trades in the oil space. The goal is not to make a long‑term call on where crude “should” be, but to structure positions that are explicitly linked to the current, unusually event‑driven regime.

For free readers, this is where today’s post ends. Paid subscribers can see the exact structure, sizing, and risk framing of the trade we have just implemented.

US Backs Down on Russian Oil Sanctions

MacroXX — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 11:22:21 GMT

Just weeks after pressuring India to curb Russian oil imports, the U.S. issued a 30-day waiver letting Indian refiners buy Russian crude already loaded onto tankers before March 5. This about-face la…

Oil, War, and the Limits of Control

MacroXX — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 21:03:52 GMT

The new war brewing between Iran and the U.S.–Israel coalition has upended assumptions that the world was easing back toward stability. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of the world…

Geopolitics, Macro Shocks, and the Iran–US Test

MacroXX — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 20:52:26 GMT

Every week, a new geopolitical story is supposed to “change everything.” Most don’t. When you look at growth, inflation, jobs, and profits a few years later, many “historic” events leave barely a mac…

Daily Newsletter 2/24/26

MacroXX — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 18:26:36 GMT

Equities reflect a stellar earnings season and robust estimate revisions—albeit now slowing—yet the S&P 500's year-to-date performance lingers near zero, puzzling given the underlying strength.

Cryptocurrencies' sharp reversal baffles observers, especially as institutional adoption accelerates, just as corporate profits expand and forecasts trend upward, though decelerating.

The market is currently grappling with notable tail risks stemming from the potential for escalation into a broader Iran-related conflict, where simmering US-Iran nuclear tensions could rapidly intensify through miscalculations, proxy confrontations in the Middle East, or direct military responses over unresolved issues like uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. This lingering uncertainty acts as a subtle but persistent drag on investor confidence, amplifying volatility in energy markets and safe-haven assets while underscoring the fragility of global stability amid ongoing diplomatic stalemates.

We maintain a constructive outlook for commodities over the medium to long haul, particularly gold, silver, and select others, bolstered by persistent Iran conflict uncertainties weighing on sentiment.

Technology valuations had reached extreme levels, leaving little margin for error, while sector and factor rotations were pushed to unprecedented extremes, signaling widespread overcrowding.

Fed speakers like Goolsbee urge patience on rate cuts until inflation convincingly retreats, with no policy pivot anticipated before mid-year.

OUR TRADES

We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.

Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.

Summary: Most of our options positions that expired on February 20th unfortunately closed out of the money, resulting in a relatively significant loss equivalent to 5.8% of our portfolio. We still have a couple of other options positions outstanding, and in particular, our NUGT and SILJ positions appear poised to offset the total loss and potentially return the overall portfolio to positive territory.

Daily Newsletter 2/10/26

MacroXX — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:25:22 GMT

One thing is clear in today’s markets: uncertainty is likely to persist longer than most investors anticipated. Indexes remain range‑bound, yet the Dow is still trading above 50,000, while the rapid expansion of AI is creating significant challenges for many businesses. Elevated capital expenditure requirements are straining balance sheets, and previously cash‑rich large technology firms are increasingly turning to traditional financing. Japan’s recent elections have further complicated the global market backdrop.

Japan’s recent election, which handed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party a powerful mandate, is likely to reinforce expectations of prolonged fiscal stimulus and structural reform, with important implications for global carry trades and the Japanese bond market. As investors anticipate continued or expanded government spending and potential tax cuts, upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields becomes more likely, even if the Bank of Japan leans against sharp moves through purchases and yield curve control–style tools. A steeper JGB yield curve would narrow the rate differential that has underpinned the yen-funded carry trade, where global investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher‑yielding foreign assets; if markets start to price a more meaningful normalization of Japanese rates, some of these positions could unwind, supporting a stronger yen and adding volatility across risk assets. At the same time, if fiscal stimulus boosts growth without a disorderly jump in yields, domestic investors may gradually find local bonds more attractive relative to foreign debt, further reshaping flows that have long supported global fixed-income markets.

Canceling Japan's yen carry trade would likely pressure U.S. financial markets through forced asset sales and a stronger yen.

A yen carry trade unwind would trigger U.S. equity sell-offs, particularly in tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq, with S&P 500 drops, echoing the August 2024 episode. Bond markets would face stress from lower Treasury demand as capital flows back to Japan amid rising JGB yields and a shrinking yield spread. Meanwhile, yen strength would raise dollar funding costs, fueling currency swings, risk aversion, and VIX spikes.

However, one key factor remains: the bond vigilantes. Fiscal stimulus must ultimately win their approval as well.

So, how should we interpret these developments? Recent market behavior has been challenging to decipher, with asset prices often reacting sharply to virtually any news—positive or negative—well beyond what we would typically expect. While financial markets naturally respond to new information, the magnitude of these moves stands out. Fundamentally, we do not yet see significant fractures in the U.S. economy, aside from weakening consumer confidence, an alarming rise in credit usage among households, and some emerging signs of stress in the labor market, all of which understandably raise concerns for some investors. That said, we are not overly worried at this stage and believe markets are largely in a holding pattern ahead of the next U.S. CPI release on Friday at 8:30 a.m., which will report January’s inflation data.

In summary, we are maintaining our current positions for now and added a single new position today, which was shared exclusively with paid subscribers.

Don’t miss a move—subscribe for daily updates and instant trade alerts that keep you ahead of the market.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 2/9/26

MacroXX — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 22:31:42 GMT

Markets have rebounded, with precious metals (particularly gold and silver) recovering last week’s losses. Bitcoin has stabilized around $70,000, the Dow has surpassed 50,000 for the first time ever, and US-Iran tensions have eased. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s inflation data—everything appears to be returning to normal. However, the underlying uncertainties persist. The economy remains robust, making it challenging for the Fed to satisfy Trump, though it may still cut rates once or twice.

Achieving the balance sheet reduction that Warsh advocates would be difficult to accomplish rapidly. It could be done gradually, at a slightly faster pace than Powell would have pursued.

Warsh also seeks to ease regulatory capital requirements for banks, enabling them to purchase Treasuries rather than relying on the Fed.

The dollar is declining from its cyclically overvalued position toward neutral valuation—or potentially even becoming cheap. This decline also reflects a secular trend: major economies no longer wish to depend on an unreliable U.S. and are seeking to diversify away from it. The strongest alternatives remain gold and the Swiss franc, though dollar liquidity will still be essential for global trade.

Regarding international positions: We’ve decided to stay away from any Japan trade for now, though we may consider entering later this week. We’re still avoiding all Argentinian exposure and are looking to build more positions in Europe.

Regarding gold and silver positions: As you know, we extended our exposure last week. Some of our precious metal options are due on 2/20/26, with others expiring later in March. We expect many of them to end up in-the-money. As we’ve repeated many times, we remain medium- to long-term bullish here.

Regarding our defense position: We’re still holding. While US-Iran tensions have eased, along with the Greenland situation, geopolitical shifts continue to occur at a rapid pace. Thus, we’re maintaining these positions.

Regarding our financial exposure: We closed our KBWB position last week but are still holding XLF.

Another sector worth monitoring closely is housing. With potential deregulation and the upcoming midterm elections, affordability is likely to remain a key topic of discussion in the months ahead.

Don’t miss a move—subscribe for daily updates and instant trade alerts that keep you ahead of the market.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 2/6/26

MacroXX — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 20:23:08 GMT

Is the post–sell-off rally genuine? Frankly, it’s difficult to say with certainty. We continue to believe that gold, silver, and select other commodities will appreciate over time. Here’s another consideration for gold: long-term demand remains intact, and the fundamentals have not changed. However, if smart money shifts toward another safe haven, conditions could evolve quickly. Recent margin calls have also played a role in recent price movements.

Overall, we maintain a medium- to long-term bullish outlook on precious metals. Near-term movements, however, are hard to predict. Option data suggest that interest in short-expiration trades remains elevated, while certain silver ETFs appear questionable. From a technical standpoint, most indicators show oversold conditions.

So why aren’t we fully bullish and buying every dip? In our view, markets continue to react sharply to news—both bullish and bearish—often exaggerating short-term sentiment. Many investors act as though a crash could happen at any moment, yet simultaneously attempt to “buy the dip.” We believe the market is filtering news in ways that make purely theoretical approaches less effective right now.

In this environment, our strategy is to stay vigilant in the short term while maintaining a long-term perspective. We remain bullish on gold, silver, and select commodities. We’re currently avoiding Argentina due to elevated uncertainty, and Japan appears too risky at the moment. Tech is on hold for now, while housing has become a new area of interest as we await potential regulatory changes. Our previous positions were slightly premature, but we are monitoring closely. In financials, we’ve reduced exposure given the number of unknowns in play

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 2/4/26

MacroXX — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 15:30:48 GMT

We remain firmly bullish on precious metals over the long term. While periodic volatility is anticipated—as we foresaw—the recent pullback presented an opportunity to selectively increase exposure, particularly to gold and silver.

Whether this marks the ultimate low remains uncertain, but our conviction in the prevailing uptrend is unwavering, justifying our continued positioning. That said, our use of medium-term options demands prudent risk management. We anticipate near-term upside over the coming days, though short-term outcomes remain inherently unpredictable.

On the defensive front, we continue to monitor developments in Greenland and Iran, the latter of which remains an active concern despite Greenland receding from headlines. These factors also inform our evaluation of potential oil exposure.

Among our other holdings, technology positions warrant caution. Our energy strategy is progressing, albeit more gradually than anticipated. We plan to sustain our Argentina allocation for the near term and intend to engage Japan’s elections this week—despite elevated crowding—potentially establishing a new position. We have also reduced our financials exposure, which may prove slightly early, but we see significant uncertainty around Kevin Warsh’s appointment and prefer to first observe the bond market’s reaction before fully repositioning.

We have consistently highlighted asset reallocation and liquidity dynamics as key market drivers. We continue to view these factors as the prevailing influences for the foreseeable future.

OUR TRADES

ARGENTINA

YPF

20 FEB 26 37 Long Call Premium: $1.11 Delta: 0.42 1/21/26 15:15

Below is the message we shared with our paid subscribers on Monday at 3:10 p.m.: we closed our Argentina position with a profit of 57.58%. We typically gain exposure to Argentina via ARGT, BBAR, and/or YPF. We intend to re-enter the market, but for now, we prefer to remain on the sidelines after realizing these gains.

DEFENCE

SHLD

20 FEB 26 79 Long Call Premium: $2.03 Delta: 0.45 1/20/26 10:50
20 MAR 26 80 Long Call Premium: $2.46 Delta: 0.43 1/20/26 10:52

Daily Newsletter 2/2/26

MacroXX — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 20:35:13 GMT

The market’s speculative euphoria finally cracked on Friday. Overinflated tech and growth stocks plunged sharply, while the oversold Dollar surged, hammering precious metals and exposing how fragile that mini-bubble had become. The turn wasn’t unexpected—by every metric, those bubbles were overdue for a correction.

The return of Kevin Warsh to the conversation adds another layer. Once known for his hawkish instincts, Warsh must have convinced Trump that his outlook has evolved. Still, we expect him to be more conviction-driven than data-dependent, a trait shaped by his long experience in markets. Unlike Powell, Warsh might focus less on consensus and more on firm judgment—especially in decisions like how quickly to unwind the Fed’s balance sheet or how to handle regulatory responsibilities within the system.

As for gold’s strength, it reflects something deeper than speculation. With debt levels soaring across major economies, investors increasingly treat gold as the only credible alternative to fiat currencies. China’s speculative flows likely amplified the moves in silver, the traditional high-beta companion to gold.

Warsh, though just one individual, could modestly slow the Dollar’s decline—but he can’t reverse it outright. What he can do is restore a measure of independence to the Fed. He’s seasoned enough to resist political pressure, possibly more so than Powell, and his rapport with market veterans like Bessent could give the institution a stronger standing.

Interestingly, Warsh favors leaner communication with markets—a sharp contrast to Powell’s early missteps and eventual improvement in transparency. Whether tighter lips will lead to steadier policy or simply more confusion remains an open question.

And here is our view on precious metals (our focus is on gold, silver, and copper): we remain medium- to long-term bullish on gold and silver, and fully bullish on copper. Although prices were inflated prior to the recent pullback, we view this as a healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend. We recognize that silver, in particular, has historically struggled to recover from sharp declines, yet our outlook remains constructive. We see current levels as a buying opportunity and have increased our short-term exposure to gold and silver. Our current positioning includes several low- to medium-delta option trades expiring in late February and early March. We believe commodity prices will recover once markets adjust to the appointment of the new Fed Chair.

Of course, if institutional capital reallocates away from gold and silver into alternative havens such as the Swiss franc or cryptocurrencies, our assessment could prove entirely incorrect.

We are aware that central bank gold purchases may be showing signs of slowing; however, we believe the decisive factor will be continued unreported Chinese buying, which we expect will offset this loss of demand.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 1/30/26

MacroXX — Fri, 30 Jan 2026 13:28:09 GMT

Our market outlook remains broadly unchanged today. Yesterday’s market action appeared to be profit-taking in commodities—a development we had expected. The main question now is whether individual investors will continue to support the rally, particularly in gold and silver. For gold, geopolitical tensions and sustained central bank purchases should continue to provide underlying support.

Although we remain medium-term bullish on commodities—especially gold and silver—we are mindful of the risks. Positioning has become crowded, and a short-term pullback is likely. However, unless there is a meaningful reduction in global uncertainty, we do not anticipate a shift in our broader outlook.

Overall, we maintain our medium-term bullish stance on commodities and defense. Our view on financials will depend on how the situation between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve unfolds. In contrast, we remain cautious on technology until we see a clearer directional trend emerging.

In the meantime, as always, we continue to monitor global markets closely. Our focus has been on Japan, Argentina, and selected sectors in Europe. We are now turning increased attention toward Europe, where we see many emerging opportunities—particularly in sectors that are sensitive to geopolitical dynamics.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 1/28/26

MacroXX — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 16:55:09 GMT

Safe-haven demand strengthened as the dollar index slid to a four-year low. Gold rose to a new record on Tuesday, extending a sharp rally driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. EST, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST.

Today’s decision is drawing heightened scrutiny because President Donald Trump has been pressing the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence. The extent to which the Fed resists this pressure may shape market confidence in its commitment to controlling inflation over the coming years.

Near-Term Expectations

Banking and Financials

Holding KBWB and XLF aligns with constructive big-bank outlooks, given their scale advantages in a high-rate environment. Avoiding regionals reduces exposure to credit risks from commercial real estate. Monitor broader financials like JPM or BAC for reentries on pullbacks tied to post-Fed yield moves.

Defense

Solid call to add to defense on the pullback—Greenland tensions easing post-Trump rhetoric has created a tactical dip without derailing the multi-year uptrend.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX stand out as defensive plays with strong backlogs from U.S. and allied contracts.

Geopolitical flashpoints (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risks) keep order backlogs massive for primes; U.S. defense budget likely rises under current administration.

Greenland “issue” was noise—strategic Arctic focus persists, but markets overreacted short-term, offering 3-6% retracement entries.

Gold

As we’ve noted multiple times, our long-standing bullish stance on gold and silver has paid off handsomely to date. We open and close short-term positions using gold-related ETFs, currently holding GLD and GDX, and may add an ultra-short-term NUGT position.

Both positions are in-the-money.

Silver

A low-delta position suggests a cheap, high-conviction bet on moderate upside—likely calls with strikes well above spot. Profitability without ITM status points to theta decay working in your favor if silver grinds higher on industrial demand or inflation hedges.

It's already in-the-money—excellent news!

Argentina

We have an open Argentine trade based on YPF, which is nearly in-the-money.

Japan

We're keeping a sharp eye on Japan's economic maneuvers.

OUR TRADES

ARGENTINA

YPF

20 FEB 26 37 Long Call Premium: $1.11 Delta: 0.42 1/21/26 15:15

Daily Newsletter 1/22/26

MacroXX — Thu, 22 Jan 2026 15:31:01 GMT

Major indexes rose modestly following President Trump’s speech yesterday, aligning with expectations. Geopolitical tensions remain deferred rather than resolved, sustaining underlying uncertainty. Investor optimism supports short-term equity gains, though sustainability is unclear. Portfolio positioning holds steady, with targeted monitoring across key sectors and assets.

Market Overview
U.S. indexes advanced slightly post-speech, reflecting market interpretation of the address as a stabilizing signal amid persistent geopolitical risks. Core issues—such as unresolved international conflicts—have merely been postponed, leaving volatility drivers intact. This dynamic favors tactical upside in broad markets, but extended rallies hinge on concrete policy follow-through.

Portfolio Positioning
No material adjustments to date. Defense holdings tracked projections precisely: a mild pullback gave way to consolidation, validating our near-term outlook. Financials—we are already positioned but might reposition—are poised for rotation amid deregulation tailwinds; we await developments on Fed independence and the new chair announcement.

Key Focus Areas
Active surveillance spans high-conviction themes:

Defense: Continues to align with forecasts following recent consolidation.

Financials and Semiconductors: Earnings catalysts and AI-driven demand signal upside potential.

Geographic Exposures: Monitoring Mercosur trade dynamics for potential regional disruptions; Japan situation remains complicated with likely global repercussions—we are monitoring for now.

Commodities: Gold and silver benefit from haven flows; natural gas suppliers—we are focusing here on some selected suppliers based on some current events—face supply dynamics amid seasonal demand.

Outlook
Near-term index strength likely persists on sentiment, but vigilance on defense, financials, semis, and named assets remains paramount. Escalating uncertainties could prompt defensive reallocations.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 1/21/26

MacroXX — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:35:43 GMT

US financial markets rebounded today following sharp declines the prior day sparked by President Trump’s tariff threats related to Greenland. Major indices advanced after his World Economic Forum speech, where he ruled out forceful acquisition tactics, serving as the key catalyst to restore investor confidence. This uptick does not signal an easing of tensions; short-term relief may emerge, but persistent volatility is expected unless both sides adjust their approaches.

Yesterday’s Metals and Defense

The sharp rally in gold and silver from yesterday failed to extend as anticipated today.

To clarify, the medium-term bullish outlook on gold and silver remains intact. This stance rests on persistent dollar debasement pressures and unrelenting central bank accumulation, despite overcrowding concerns and technical challenges. Attractive entry opportunities have emerged for gold, and new positions have been opened.

Defense stocks traded mostly sideways following their extended prior run-up, though further upside is expected.

Portfolio Updates

Big bank and financial option positions have been closed after taking profits, with new positions now opened.

While the White House's "near future" statement remains imprecise, the new Fed Chair announcement is anticipated next week at the latest, or possibly this weekend. The Supreme Court's recent affirmation of the Fed's independence from political interference also influences these positions. In our view, the Supreme Court will play a larger role not only in tariff applications but also in the Fed independence issue.

New positions have been established in Argentina and CRK, with a fully bullish outlook on both: Argentina due to Mercosur developments and President Milei’s Davos event; CRK given its prime position in the Western Haynesville, which stands to gain as Permian depletion challenges intensify—CRK holds the strongest and most extensive acreage there among a select few producers.

OUR TRADES

Daily Newsletter 1/20/26

MacroXX — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 15:19:43 GMT

US stock indexes are currently trading lower, in line with expectations amid an exceptionally active geopolitical backdrop.

A separate post will outline the current geopolitical outlook, while this p…

Daily Newsletter 1/14/26

MacroXX — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 16:14:22 GMT

U.S. stocks slipped midweek as investors evaluated major bank earnings and monitored escalating geopolitical risks. The broad market index declined, the technology-focused composite fell more sharply, and the blue-chip benchmark posted a modest loss. Shares of large semiconductor companies such as Nvidia and Broadcom weighed heavily on technology indexes.

Safe-haven commodities extended their historic rally. Gold hit a new all-time high, silver climbed past a symbolic milestone not seen before, and copper reached another record.

In corporate results, Bank of America topped Wall Street forecasts for the final quarter of the previous year, supported by stronger lending income and equity trading activity. Wells Fargo underperformed revenue expectations but managed to beat on profits after adjusting for restructuring costs. Its overall gains benefited from the Federal Reserve’s earlier decision to lift the asset cap, though deposit mix challenges continued to weigh on its margins.

Citigroup delivered better-than-expected adjusted earnings, helped by steady performance across its banking, wealth, and institutional services divisions. Excluding costs tied to its Russia-related charge, underlying revenue rose, reflecting progress under Chief Executive Jane Fraser’s restructuring plan.

Adding to uncertainty, the Department of Justice reportedly issued a federal grand jury subpoena involving the Federal Reserve, spotlighting concerns over central bank independence. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report next, rounding out a volatile week for the financial sector.

Despite recent turbulence, sentiment toward major U.S. banks remains broadly constructive.

Near-Term Expectations

In the current market environment, we are maintaining our core positions, with a focus on financials, large-cap banks, and defense sectors. Our portfolio has performed better than anticipated, supported by the timely decision made in early December to increase exposure to defense-related stocks. We currently hold options positions expiring in mid-January and late February of next year, along with a small equity allocation primarily in KBWB.

We plan to roll over certain existing positions and establish new ones as part of our portfolio strategy. Following the major options expiration on January 16, 2025, we will conduct a comprehensive portfolio review and update. Our portfolio, established at the beginning of December with a focus on defense and large-cap banks, has delivered strong returns to date. Real estate holdings have lagged by comparison, but overall performance remains satisfactory.