Daily Newsletter 1/22/26
Major indexes rose modestly following President Trump’s speech yesterday, aligning with expectations. Geopolitical tensions remain deferred rather than resolved, sustaining underlying uncertainty. Investor optimism supports short-term equity gains, though sustainability is unclear. Portfolio positioning holds steady, with targeted monitoring across key sectors and assets.
Market Overview
U.S. indexes advanced slightly post-speech, reflecting market interpretation of the address as a stabilizing signal amid persistent geopolitical risks. Core issues—such as unresolved international conflicts—have merely been postponed, leaving volatility drivers intact. This dynamic favors tactical upside in broad markets, but extended rallies hinge on concrete policy follow-through.
Portfolio Positioning
No material adjustments to date. Defense holdings tracked projections precisely: a mild pullback gave way to consolidation, validating our near-term outlook. Financials—we are already positioned but might reposition—are poised for rotation amid deregulation tailwinds; we await developments on Fed independence and the new chair announcement.
Key Focus Areas
Active surveillance spans high-conviction themes:
Defense: Continues to align with forecasts following recent consolidation.
Financials and Semiconductors: Earnings catalysts and AI-driven demand signal upside potential.
Geographic Exposures: Monitoring Mercosur trade dynamics for potential regional disruptions; Japan situation remains complicated with likely global repercussions—we are monitoring for now.
Commodities: Gold and silver benefit from haven flows; natural gas suppliers—we are focusing here on some selected suppliers based on some current events—face supply dynamics amid seasonal demand.
Outlook
Near-term index strength likely persists on sentiment, but vigilance on defense, financials, semis, and named assets remains paramount. Escalating uncertainties could prompt defensive reallocations.
OUR TRADES
We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.
Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.