Daily Newsletter 12/18/25

Consumer prices rose 2.7% year over year in November, down from 3% in September, while unemployment has increased and inflation came in below expectations, suggesting there could be theoretical room for additional rate cuts in 2026, though the reality is far more complex. Longer-term yields remain elevated as so‑called bond vigilantes focus on structural concerns like large fiscal deficits and rising public debt, and the reliability of the latest economic data is also in question due to disruptions from the government shutdown and staffing issues.

So, how might markets interpret these numbers? Our view remains bullish in the very short term, fueled by the enduring Santa Claus Rally myth and semis not yet appearing oversold. We favor financials, housing, nuclear, and defense through the end of January, though this mid-December to mid-January window always carries risks of unexpected swings in either direction. A tech rebound is anticipated too—yes, AI faces real hurdles like circular financing and a lack of revenue-generating projects, but it’s far from dead. We remain bullish on gold over the medium term, with silver following suit; lately, our focus has sharpened on platinum. Internationally, attention turns to Japan—particularly EWJ—where we plan a very short-term options position around the BOJ rate announcement. We are also ready to shift the entire setup to a defensive stance if conditions warrant it, though we do not see that need yet.

OUR TRADES

We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.