Daily Newsletter 12/19/25
Indexes are trading higher this morning. Oil is edging up on escalating tensions in Venezuela. Bitcoin is rebounding following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. Recent U.S. inflation data is reinforcing expectations for rate cuts. Gold is approaching record highs, supported by easing inflation and ongoing geopolitical risks.
These developments do not materially change our short‑term view of the markets. The framework remains split into two phases—pre‑holiday and post‑holiday—reflecting both the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” effect and the idea that AI is under pressure but not yet at a point where fully exiting the theme is warranted. In that context, the portfolio stance stays bullish on financials, housing, nuclear, and selected commodities.
At the same time, some of the official data released yesterday should, in our view, be treated with a degree of skepticism. The communication has a noticeably political tone rather than a purely macroeconomic one, given questions around Fed independence, visible dissent at the last meeting, and an apparent need to “justify” future rate cuts heading into an election year. Inflation still looks far from fully contained, even as the policy narrative softens, and bond vigilantes are unlikely to quietly endorse that story. Consequently, the long end of the yield curve is unlikely to move substantially lower in the near term, even if the short end falls with shifting rate expectations, pointing toward a meaningfully steeper curve ahead.
OUR TRADES
We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.