Daily Newsletter 1/28/26
Safe-haven demand strengthened as the dollar index slid to a four-year low. Gold rose to a new record on Tuesday, extending a sharp rally driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. EST, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST.
Today’s decision is drawing heightened scrutiny because President Donald Trump has been pressing the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence. The extent to which the Fed resists this pressure may shape market confidence in its commitment to controlling inflation over the coming years.
Near-Term Expectations
Banking and Financials
Holding KBWB and XLF aligns with constructive big-bank outlooks, given their scale advantages in a high-rate environment. Avoiding regionals reduces exposure to credit risks from commercial real estate. Monitor broader financials like JPM or BAC for reentries on pullbacks tied to post-Fed yield moves.
Defense
Solid call to add to defense on the pullback—Greenland tensions easing post-Trump rhetoric has created a tactical dip without derailing the multi-year uptrend.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX stand out as defensive plays with strong backlogs from U.S. and allied contracts.
Geopolitical flashpoints (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan risks) keep order backlogs massive for primes; U.S. defense budget likely rises under current administration.
Greenland “issue” was noise—strategic Arctic focus persists, but markets overreacted short-term, offering 3-6% retracement entries.
Gold
As we’ve noted multiple times, our long-standing bullish stance on gold and silver has paid off handsomely to date. We open and close short-term positions using gold-related ETFs, currently holding GLD and GDX, and may add an ultra-short-term NUGT position.
Both positions are in-the-money.
Silver
A low-delta position suggests a cheap, high-conviction bet on moderate upside—likely calls with strikes well above spot. Profitability without ITM status points to theta decay working in your favor if silver grinds higher on industrial demand or inflation hedges.
It's already in-the-money—excellent news!
Argentina
We have an open Argentine trade based on YPF, which is nearly in-the-money.
Japan
We're keeping a sharp eye on Japan's economic maneuvers.
OUR TRADES
We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.
Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.
ARGENTINA
YPF
20 FEB 26 37 Long Call Premium: $1.11 Delta: 0.42 1/21/26 15:15