Daily Newsletter 2/24/26
Equities reflect a stellar earnings season and robust estimate revisions—albeit now slowing—yet the S&P 500's year-to-date performance lingers near zero, puzzling given the underlying strength.
Cryptocurrencies' sharp reversal baffles observers, especially as institutional adoption accelerates, just as corporate profits expand and forecasts trend upward, though decelerating.
The market is currently grappling with notable tail risks stemming from the potential for escalation into a broader Iran-related conflict, where simmering US-Iran nuclear tensions could rapidly intensify through miscalculations, proxy confrontations in the Middle East, or direct military responses over unresolved issues like uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. This lingering uncertainty acts as a subtle but persistent drag on investor confidence, amplifying volatility in energy markets and safe-haven assets while underscoring the fragility of global stability amid ongoing diplomatic stalemates.
We maintain a constructive outlook for commodities over the medium to long haul, particularly gold, silver, and select others, bolstered by persistent Iran conflict uncertainties weighing on sentiment.
Technology valuations had reached extreme levels, leaving little margin for error, while sector and factor rotations were pushed to unprecedented extremes, signaling widespread overcrowding.
Fed speakers like Goolsbee urge patience on rate cuts until inflation convincingly retreats, with no policy pivot anticipated before mid-year.
OUR TRADES
We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.
Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.
Summary: Most of our options positions that expired on February 20th unfortunately closed out of the money, resulting in a relatively significant loss equivalent to 5.8% of our portfolio. We still have a couple of other options positions outstanding, and in particular, our NUGT and SILJ positions appear poised to offset the total loss and potentially return the overall portfolio to positive territory.