Daily Newsletter 2/9/26
Markets have rebounded, with precious metals (particularly gold and silver) recovering last week’s losses. Bitcoin has stabilized around $70,000, the Dow has surpassed 50,000 for the first time ever, and US-Iran tensions have eased. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s inflation data—everything appears to be returning to normal. However, the underlying uncertainties persist. The economy remains robust, making it challenging for the Fed to satisfy Trump, though it may still cut rates once or twice.
Achieving the balance sheet reduction that Warsh advocates would be difficult to accomplish rapidly. It could be done gradually, at a slightly faster pace than Powell would have pursued.
Warsh also seeks to ease regulatory capital requirements for banks, enabling them to purchase Treasuries rather than relying on the Fed.
The dollar is declining from its cyclically overvalued position toward neutral valuation—or potentially even becoming cheap. This decline also reflects a secular trend: major economies no longer wish to depend on an unreliable U.S. and are seeking to diversify away from it. The strongest alternatives remain gold and the Swiss franc, though dollar liquidity will still be essential for global trade.
Regarding international positions: We’ve decided to stay away from any Japan trade for now, though we may consider entering later this week. We’re still avoiding all Argentinian exposure and are looking to build more positions in Europe.
Regarding gold and silver positions: As you know, we extended our exposure last week. Some of our precious metal options are due on 2/20/26, with others expiring later in March. We expect many of them to end up in-the-money. As we’ve repeated many times, we remain medium- to long-term bullish here.
Regarding our defense position: We’re still holding. While US-Iran tensions have eased, along with the Greenland situation, geopolitical shifts continue to occur at a rapid pace. Thus, we’re maintaining these positions.
Regarding our financial exposure: We closed our KBWB position last week but are still holding XLF.
Another sector worth monitoring closely is housing. With potential deregulation and the upcoming midterm elections, affordability is likely to remain a key topic of discussion in the months ahead.
OUR TRADES
We share all our short-term trades in the Tactical Portfolio exclusively with paid subscribers, showing the exact entry time and price for every trade below. Subscribers receive timely buy and sell alerts via chat. Our approach is eclectic, blending macroeconomic insights with a quantitative methodology. We do not limit ourselves to specific markets or sectors, seeking to profit from any short or very short trade that fits our strategy. We use sophisticated option strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements, ensuring full transparency and prompt exit updates.
Our option positions are presented using a single‑contract example. In practice, our portfolio includes positions with varying contract sizes. This approach allows you to scale position size up or down to reflect the strength of your market view.