Daily Newsletter 3/11/25
What we watch before markets open
Good morning.
Euro €
The euro has recently experienced a significant surge against the U.S. dollar, marking its strongest rally in years. Here are the key factors driving this development:
Key Drivers of the Euro's Surge
German Fiscal Stimulus:
Germany announced plans for massive fiscal spending, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund and increased defense expenditures. These measures have boosted growth prospects for the Eurozone and shifted market sentiment positively.
Weakened U.S. Dollar:
Concerns over the U.S. economy, exacerbated by new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Mexico, Canada, and China, have weakened the dollar. The U.S. dollar index recently fell to its lowest level since November 2024.
Market Adjustments to Policy Shifts:
The European Central Bank (ECB) may need fewer rate cuts due to improved fiscal conditions in Europe. This has reduced fears of euro-dollar parity, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards.
Investor Sentiment:
Hedge funds and traders have started betting on further euro appreciation, with some predicting it could rise to $1.20 in the coming months. This optimism is fueled by Europe’s stronger fiscal outlook and a potential resolution to trade tensions.
JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2025 is scheduled for release today, March 11, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT. This survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides monthly data on job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and separations across nonfarm establishments in the U.S.
DAL
Delta Air Lines has recently revised its financial outlook for the first quarter of 2025, citing a decline in domestic travel demand due to economic uncertainty in the United States. This development, along with other economic indicators, provides insights into the current health of the US economy. Delta's demand decline serves as a barometer for broader economic trends, suggesting increased caution among consumers and businesses. However, the overall health of the economy remains a subject of debate among analysts, with varying projections for growth and employment in the coming year.
API (American Petreloum Institute) Bulletin
The most recent API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) was released on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, reporting data for the week ending February 28, 2025.