Daily Newsletter 4/14/25

Good morning.

The markets are poised for a strong start this morning as U.S. equity futures rise, driven by optimism following President Trump's temporary tariff exemptions on key tech imports. However, our primary outlook anticipates a mild recession, driven by the significant uncertainty and rising costs associated with the ongoing tariff war. Temporary relief from tariffs on smartphones, semiconductors, and other electronics has boosted market sentiment, particularly in the tech sector. The exemptions are not permanent, and uncertainty remains regarding future tariff policies.

Stocks of major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia are expected to recover some losses after being significantly impacted by earlier tariff announcements.

Asian and European markets are also trading higher, with Japan's Topix up 1.6% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.6%.

We believe the market is currently in a bearish phase. The current rally is an intermission driven by deeply oversold conditions. Another decline, is likely ahead and may result in a lower low.

Major earnings reports today include:

Goldman Sachs (GS) and M&T Bank (MTB).

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