Daily Newsletter 4/15/25
Good morning.
The markets rallied following President Donald Trump's announcement of tariff exemptions on certain consumer electronics, boosting investor sentiment.
Monday's trading session reflected optimism fueled by tariff exemptions, though lingering uncertainties around broader trade policies continue to weigh on market sentiment.
After a brief boost from a tech tariff reprieve, global auto stocks are gaining momentum today following comments from President Trump indicating support for the automotive industry.
It is essential that we incorporate all the new data into our analysis to accurately assess market conditions and properly value assets accordingly. We believe that until institutional investors return, we lack clarity on the market's direction. Recent pricing over the past few days carries limited significance, and until institutional investors return, the market's direction remains uncertain.
Following substantial increases in trading revenue reported by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America also announced gains in their trading businesses.
We are closely monitoring other earnings releases today, with particular attention on United Airlines (UAL) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).
We continue to foresee a moderate recession. Key contributing factors include ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply chains, the potential enactment of a 10% general tariff, government layoffs, and the inadequacy of spending cuts and tariff revenues to fund a tax reduction.
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