Daily Newsletter 4/24/25
Yesterday’s rally was fueled by easing worries over U.S. trade policy and Federal Reserve leadership, as President Trump signaled a more conciliatory approach to tariffs and clarified he has no plans to replace the Fed chair. This shift in tone boosted investor confidence and contributed to gains across major stock indexes.
We remain unconvinced that recession concerns have fully subsided and continue to believe that a mild recession is likely. We would say that the probability of recession has decreased. However, it’s clear that economic growth will slow. Ultimately, the extent of the slowdown will depend on how long uncertainty continues to freeze business decision-making.
Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that the tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are so elevated that they are likely to cause significant harm to both economies. With the U.S. engaged in simultaneous tariff disputes with nearly all major trading partners, global supply chains have no viable offshore alternatives to turn to.
We mentioned that gold would experience a sell-off, despite our belief that it is following a breakthrough trendline.
The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release the jobless claims report today. The Department releases the weekly jobless claims report—covering both initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims—every Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Jobless claims release is important because it offers an up-to-date gauge of employment trends, influences market sentiment, and helps guide economic policy decisions. Unlike monthly jobs data, which reflect changes after they have occurred, initial jobless claims are reported weekly and can capture shifts in employment trends as they happen.
Initial jobless claims are considered a leading indicator of the economy. They provide early signals about changes in the economic cycle because they reflect new layoffs and emerging trends in the labor market before these shifts appear in broader employment data.
Uncertainty around tariffs, especially those imposed on major trading partners like China, is making businesses more cautious about hiring and investment. This hesitancy could slow job creation, even if it hasn’t yet led to a significant increase in layoffs. Certain sectors, such as manufacturing and homebuilding, are already feeling the effects of higher costs due to tariffs, which can depress activity and potentially lead to future job cuts.
Important earnings reports we are watching today include Ari (ARI), Caterpillar (CAT), Comcast (CMCSA), Dow Inc. (DOW), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), Merck (MRK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Nokia (NOK), PepsiCo (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), TBBK (Bancorp Inc), T-Mobile US (TMUS), and Union Pacific (UNP).
OUR TRADES
Given the current market uncertainty and lack of clear direction, we are concentrating on tactical macro trades and short-term positions that we establish throughout the day in response to earnings releases.
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