Daily Newsletter 4/28/25
Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to impact global economic outlook and investor behavior.
Investors are preparing for a week of significant economic data, with particular focus on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the first-quarter U.S. GDP figures, both expected later in the week.
The Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday, providing insight into the labor market.
This week, we’re likely to see further evidence that tariff uncertainty is impacting U.S. economic growth.
In Europe, attention is on upcoming data releases later in the week, including eurozone GDP and inflation figures. Today, the ECB will present its Annual Report for 2024 to the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, followed by an exchange of views on monetary policy and economic outlook.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. The consensus among analysts is that the BOJ will keep its key short-term interest rate steady at 0.5% during this meeting, maintaining its current policy stance due to ongoing risks to Japan's fragile economic recovery, including the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and global economic uncertainties.
The economic calendar is filled with major U.S. corporate earnings this week, featuring prominent companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s, all of which have the potential to significantly impact market sentiment. We are also monitoring several earnings reports from international companies, including HSBC, DLAKF, VLVOF, SSABF, BCH, CICHF, DB, BACHY, ACGBF, and others.
These events are likely to drive market volatility and shape investor expectations throughout the day and the rest of the week.
OUR TRADES
We are actively monitoring premarket prices, particularly index futures, and will adjust our portfolio as needed.
In these uncertain times, we believe markets outside the US offer better value. Consequently, we are closely monitoring emerging markets and Europe while continuing to execute tactical trades primarily within US markets. Index futures are trading slightly higher. We plan to initiate several ultra-short-term tactical trades today, as well as trades with a one- to two-day time horizon.
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