Daily Newsletter 6/11/25
CPI Just Dropped
Inflation is Slowing Down
Core CPI MoM: 0.1% (vs 0.3% forecast)
Core CPI YoY: 2.8% (vs 2.9% forecast)
CPI MoM: 0.1% (vs 0.2% forecast)
CPIYoY: 2.4% (vs 2.5% forecast)
Pressure on the Fed: Calls for More Aggressive Rate Cuts
The president may step up public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to cut interest rates more aggressively and arguing that easier monetary policy is essential for boosting economic growth and driving markets higher.
As inflation approaches the 2% target, the Fed is more likely to consider rate cuts especially if economic activity shows signs of slowing. However, the Fed remains cautious and data-dependent, watching for persistent disinflation before making substantial policy shifts.
We anticipate that the recent easing of tensions between the United States and China will provide a meaningful boost to technology stocks, with semiconductor companies likely to be among the primary beneficiaries. While it is important to note that a comprehensive resolution to the underlying issues has yet to be achieved, the reduction in trade-related uncertainty is expected to foster a more favorable environment for the sector overall.
Despite the fact that many technology stocks are currently trading in overbought territory, the positive momentum generated by improved US-China relations should support a bullish trend in the near term.
We are actively monitoring the commodity markets and currently hold a positive outlook on gold, silver, and copper. Our view on oil remains more cautious, as its direction will largely depend on upcoming decisions and actions from OPEC+.