Daily Newsletter 6/27/25

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.3% year-over-year, matching consensus estimates.

Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, the core PCE—considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—increased 2.7% from a year earlier, slightly surpassing the expected 2.6% rise.

On a month-over-month basis, the PCE Price Index was up 0.1%, while the core PCE, excluding food and energy, advanced 0.2%.

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Today, in addition to the PCE data, we are also awaiting the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM EST. Given the significance of this indicator, we are providing background information on the survey to assist you in interpreting the results.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a critical, real-time gauge of U.S. consumer confidence, released twice monthly, and is considered a leading indicator for economic activity and consumer spending.