Daily Newsletter 6/30/25

This morning, U.S. stock futures are signaling a cautiously optimistic start to the trading day with modest gains across major indices. Futures suggest that the market is positioned for a stable to modestly positive open as the second quarter concludes, with technology and financial sectors leading the advance.

This positive momentum is underpinned by easing geopolitical tensions, renewed optimism surrounding trade negotiations—highlighted by Canada’s recent decision to withdraw its digital services tax on U.S. technology firms—and anticipation of upcoming economic data and corporate earnings releases.

Ongoing Senate discussions on a significant tax cut bill are also being closely monitored, as its passage could provide a substantial fiscal stimulus boost.

In addition to anticipated fiscal stimulus and easing geopolitical tensions, regulatory developments have been a key factor bolstering financial stocks. Recent federal initiatives indicate a clear trend toward the relaxation of certain regulatory requirements and the streamlining of oversight processes.

The Federal Reserve’s 2025 stress test results, released on June 27, showed that all 22 major U.S. banks assessed would remain solvent and above minimum capital requirements even under a hypothetical severe global recession scenario. The Fed also announced plans to improve transparency in future stress tests by seeking public feedback on the models and scenario design frameworks used in these assessments.