Daily Newsletter 7/14/25
On Saturday, July 12, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will implement a 30% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union, effective August 1, 2025. This decision follows a series of tariff notifications sent to over 20 U.S. trading partners, with the EU and Mexico among the most significant targets. The new tariffs are part of the administration’s broader strategy to address what it characterizes as a persistent U.S. trade deficit and to encourage more reciprocal trade relationships. While some countries have negotiated lower rates or new trade agreements, most—including the EU—now face sharply increased tariffs unless further agreements are reached before the deadline.
Market reactions to this development are expected to be consistent with previous tariff adjustments, as investors typically absorb such policy changes and shift focus to other factors over time.
There are no major U.S. macroeconomic data releases scheduled for today. The only notable U.S. financial event today is the 6-month Treasury bill auction at 3:30 PM ET. Otherwise, market attention is likely to remain on ongoing geopolitical developments, tariff announcements, and anticipation of upcoming inflation and earnings reports, rather than any scheduled domestic economic data releases.
Oil prices had reached a three-week high, with West Texas Intermediate futures rising to around $69.50 per barrel, but as of 9:05 a.m. EST, futures have pulled back and are trading nearly $0.80 per barrel lower. Our current portfolio includes an option position on oil futures, which we continue to hold as part of our broader trading strategy.
The second-quarter earnings season is ramping up, led by major U.S. banks and global industry leaders whose results will provide crucial insights into the health of the economy and set the tone for the rest of 2025. This week, our trading activity will focus on establishing option positions designed to capture the earnings effect. We will share a separate post today, as well as on other days throughout the week, featuring our analysis of the earnings impact for selected stocks reporting results, to keep our subscribers fully informed and up to date.
The newly announced tariffs are designed to encourage greater U.S. domestic copper production and decrease dependence on imports. However, analysts caution that these measures may lead to supply constraints, given that the United States imports nearly half of its copper and possesses limited refining capacity. Market participants are closely monitoring the possibility of retaliatory actions from the European Union and other trading partners, as such responses could place additional upward pressure on copper prices and further disrupt global supply chains.
