Daily Newsletter 7/2/25
Following record-high closes for major indexes on Tuesday, futures indicate modest gains at the open, reflecting continued optimism around trade negotiations and expectations of interest rate cuts.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” represents a major shift in U.S. fiscal policy, with lasting implications for taxes, social spending, and the federal deficit. Its passage or failure will significantly shape the economic and political landscape heading into the next election cycle.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would likely have already cut interest rates this year if not for the inflationary impact and uncertainty caused by President Trump’s new tariff policies.
Japan–U.S. trade talks are currently deadlocked as the July 9 deadline approaches, when President Trump’s suspension of reciprocal tariffs is set to expire.The main sticking points are U.S. demands for Japan to increase imports of American agricultural products—especially rice—and Japan’s push for the U.S. to lift the 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles, a critical sector for Japan’s economy.
A U.S. federal judge has ordered Argentina to surrender its 51% controlling stake in YPF, the state-run oil and gas company, to help satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgment against the country. The order is a major setback for Argentina, which is already struggling with depleted foreign reserves and economic instability. Loss of control over YPF would be a significant blow to the country’s energy sector and Milei’s economic agenda.