Daily Newsletter 7/31/25

This morning, the index futures are higher, indicating that the markets have largely priced in the Federal Reserve's recent decision and are prepared to focus on future developments. Additionally, the strong after-hours movements in MSFT and META following their earnings releases have further contributed to a positive market sentiment.

Earnings results to date are setting the market’s tone. In particular, stronger-than-expected technology sector earnings provide sufficient momentum to sustain market optimism.

Initial jobless claims increased less than expected. The actual number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week was 218,000. This figure is slightly below the forecasted figure of 222,000.

We anticipate that economic growth will decelerate in the coming months as the impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced. To date, their effect has been relatively modest. While many have dismissed the tariffs as mere noise, we advise caution and would not be so quick to underestimate their potential influence.