Daily Newsletter 8/15/25

Retail sales increased by 0.5% in July, falling short of forecasted expectations but marking the second consecutive monthly gain following a decline in the spring. Advance estimates for U.S. retail and food services sales in July 2025, adjusted for seasonal factors, holidays, and trading-day variations—but excluding price changes—totaled $726.3 billion.

This represents a 0.5 percent rise (±0.4 percent) compared to the previous month and a 3.9 percent increase (±0.5 percent) relative to July 2024.

The report signifies the second consecutive month of retail sales growth following declines in both April and May.

The recent rise in retail sales can be seen as a positive sign for the U.S. economy. After two consecutive months of declines, the increase signals that consumer spending—one of the largest components of economic activity—is regaining momentum. This suggests that households remain willing to spend despite challenges such as inflation and policy uncertainties.