Daily Newsletter 8/21/25

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 11,000 in the week ending August 16 compared to the previous week, reaching the highest level since June, the Department of Labor revealed in its report published this morning. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average reached 226,250, up by 4,500 from the prior week.

How might the market interpret this new data, especially the Federal Reserve, which is under pressure to lower interest rates? This increase in jobless claims could be seen as a sign of labor market weakness, potentially strengthening the case for a rate cut. However, since inflation has not shown sufficient signs of cooling and the full impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be seen, the Fed's challenge in achieving its "dual mandate" has actually become more complex.

The most recent US inflation data was released on August 12, 2025, covering the Consumer Price Index for July, while the next inflation report is scheduled for release on September 11, 2025. The next Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting is set for September 16-17, 2025. This timeframe gives the Fed sufficient data and economic insight to make informed decisions on interest rates and monetary policy during their upcoming meeting.