Daily Newsletter 8/7/25

Today marks the beginning of a new round of PresidentTrump's tariffs. These tariffs have been scheduled to take effect today after some delays and include additional duties on various imports from several countries. The new tariff rates represent a significant escalation and include reciprocal tariffs and country-specific penalties, raising import taxes to some of the highest levels seen since the Great Depression.

Initial unemployment claims increased by 7,000, exceeding expectations. For the week ending August 2nd, initial jobless claims reached a seasonally adjusted total of 226,000, marking an increase of 7,000 from the prior week. This figure exceeded the forecast of 221,000.

Emerging signs of a softening labor market, coupled with tariff-driven inflation, are set to add further complexity to an already intricate macroeconomic landscape.

Today, we will observe how the markets respond to the new data and the latest developments in tariff policy. So far, the tech-driven stock rally has largely led financial markets to largely overlook these changes and continue moving forward. It is quite likely that this will be the case again. Nonetheless, we anticipate a moderate increase in volatility, although not to the extent experienced around Liberation Day in April.