U.S. stock market futures for today are showing modest gains.
Markets are approaching today’s session with measured caution as participants eagerly await the release of key economic data scheduled for this morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims reports are expected to provide important signals regarding the trajectory of inflation and labor market conditions. Investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring these indicators for insights that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions on interest rates in the near term.
The median year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate for August 2025 stands at 2.9%, based on data not seasonally adjusted. If the actual CPI reaches this level, it will represent the highest annual increase observed since January 2025, when the CPI rose by 3.0%. This figure would also surpass the trailing 12-month average inflation rate of 2.6%, indicating a notable uptick in price pressures.
To put this into context, the CPI for July 2025 increased by 2.7% year-over-year, slightly below the median forecast of 2.8%. Over the previous twelve months, the CPI exceeded median estimates in two months, matched expectations in four months, and fell short in six months. Extending the timeframe to the past five years, actual CPI readings have surpassed median projections 45% of the time, aligned with estimates 20% of the time, and been lower than expected in 35% of the months.
