Daily Newsletter 9/25/25
This morning, U.S. stock index futures are largely flat as investors await key economic data, including weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, PCE prices and the final GDP estimate.
The U.S. Treasury is currently negotiating a $20 billion currency swap line with Argentina’s central bank, a strategic move designed to stabilize Argentina’s financial system and support President Javier Milei’s free-market reforms. A currency swap line is an agreement between two central banks to exchange currencies at a pre-agreed rate, providing temporary access to foreign currency liquidity.
In addition to the swap line, the U.S. has signaled its readiness to purchase Argentina’s dollar-denominated bonds, either in the secondary market or via direct issuance, contingent on market conditions and political developments. This comprehensive support package also includes potential significant standby credit through the Exchange Stabilization Fund*, a rare and powerful tool the U.S. Treasury can deploy to back allies in times of economic stress.
These measures come as a strong endorsement of President Milei’s administration, underscoring the United States’ commitment to Argentina as a “systemically important U.S. ally” and reflecting a broader geopolitical strategy aligned with the Trump administration’s policies in Latin America.
*The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is an emergency reserve fund managed by the U.S. Treasury Department, established in 1934 to stabilize the value of the U.S. dollar. It provides the Treasury Secretary with broad authority to intervene in foreign exchange markets, buy or sell foreign currencies, and provide financing to foreign governments without needing prior Congressional approval. The ESF acts as a financial tool to address currency market instability and can be used to backstop U.S. financial and economic interests abroad in times of crisis.
Gold continues its upward trajectory despite experiencing a slight pullback over the past two days. The bullish momentum remains intact, supported by ongoing investor interest and favorable macroeconomic factors.
As you are aware, we have been closely following Argentina for some time. Following the recent news, the stock market began rallying, and with strong support from the U.S. Treasury bolstering President Milei’s position, the market is gaining additional momentum. However, we advise maintaining a cautious stance as significant profit-taking has occurred, and market volatility could increase unexpectedly. Close monitoring is therefore essential in this dynamic environment.