Daily Newsletter 9/29/25

This morning, U.S. markets show resilience despite the looming government shutdown threat. Stock futures were trending upward ahead of the market open, reflecting investor confidence supported by strong GDP growth forecasts and robust consumer spending data. Historically, government shutdowns tend to have minimal lasting effects on stock prices, and investors appear to be treating this potential shutdown similarly for now.

The potential U.S. government shutdown in late September 2025 could have more significant economic effects than usual due to the current vulnerable state of the economy.

While government shutdowns typically cause only temporary disruptions with minimal lasting damage, this one might differ, as the Trump administration is preparing for mass layoffs instead of just furloughs.

Uncertainty and disruptions to federal spending, workforce reductions, and delayed data could dampen growth and investor confidence in the near term.

Hundreds of thousands of federal workers would face delayed paychecks, creating financial strain and potentially reducing consumer confidence.

The shutdown may also delay critical economic data releases, including the September jobs report, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.