When it comes to the possibility of a government shutdown this season, it’s anybody’s guess right now. Past experience tells us that, if it does happen, most shutdowns usually wrap up within a few weeks—just long enough for citizens and voters to voice their frustrations and prompt lawmakers to sort things out. There are no secret sources or special insights here; this speculation is based simply on what’s happened before.
It’s hardly a surprise that shutdowns aren’t popular, especially among voters who rely on government services or just want a little certainty with their paycheck and investments. Political parties know this well; that’s why the Democrats will almost certainly play up their bargaining chip, showing supporters that they’re standing firm for important issues.
Right now, it’s a relatively calm moment in the financial markets. Investors aren’t panicking—but if the debates in Washington begin to drag on and create a sense of instability, expect a spike in volatility. That means more ups and downs until things settle down again. Fortunately, most of the time, that just leads to a short-term dip in the stock market rather than a dramatic crash.
This month, some of the pricier, high price-to-earnings (P/E) stocks have taken a breather; they’ve consolidated but haven’t dipped into oversold territory. So, while their valuations are still lofty, they’re not pushing extreme boundaries right now. It’s important to remember, too, that many of these high-growth companies are backed by solid fundamentals, which often help them weather bumps in the market better than most.
If history is any guide, market watchers should keep an eye on volatility and policy headlines—but there’s no need for alarm.