DXY

As of March 17, 2025, the U.S. dollar remains strong, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading at 103.40. This indicates that the dollar has maintained its strength from earlier in the month, showing only a slight decrease from 103.7195 on March 13.

Historical Perspective

1. All-time high: The DXY reached its highest level of 164.72 in February 1985.

2. Recent peak: In late 2022, the DXY experienced a notable peak, though not reaching its all-time high.

3. Current level: As of March 17, 2025, the DXY is trading around 103.74.

Recent Trends

1. Year-to-date performance: The DXY has increased by approximately 0.36% since the beginning of 2025.

2. Short-term fluctuations: Over the past week, the DXY has decreased by 0.38%, while showing a more significant decrease of 3.37% over the past month.

3. Annual performance: Despite short-term fluctuations, the DXY has increased by 0.04% over the past year.

Technical Analysis of DXY

Moving Averages

• 8-day EMA: $103.984

  20-day EMA: $105.089

  Short-term moving averages indicate a sell signal, with the stock price below both the 8-day and 20-day SMAs, it generally indicates a short-term downtrend or bearish sentiment for the stock.

• The 50-day EMA at $106.192 is above the current price, it generally indicates a bearish trend in the market.

• 100-day SMA: $106.625, indicates a bearish trend in the medium term.

  200-day SMA: $104.918, indicates a bearish trend in the long term.

Oscillators and Momentum

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14,70,30)

Daily: 28.33 indicates that the asset is currently in oversold territory. This suggests that the price may have fallen too far too quickly and could be due for a potential reversal or bounce.

Weekly: 39.50 indicates that the asset is approaching oversold territory but has not yet reached i

• The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12,6,9)

Daily: suggesting a bearish trend in the short term. The negative value implies that downside momentum is present, though not extremely strong.

Weekly: 0.0555 indicates a slightly bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe

• The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (14,-100,100)

Daily: -69.79 on a daily chart indicates that the asset's price is currently below its historical average, suggesting bearish momentum

Weekly: -173.39 indicates strong bearish momentum

Price Action and Volatility

• Bollinger Bands (Daily) : 102.011; 105.007; 108.003.

  Bollinger Bands (Weekly): 102.804; 106.509; 110.124

  Potential oversold condition: The stock may be approaching oversold levels, as it's trading below its average price

  Bearish sentiment: The price being below the middle band indicates some bearish pressure, though not as extreme as if it were touching or below the lower band.

  Possible reversal signal: This position could indicate a potential for a price reversal to the upside, especially if other technical indicators confirm

  Percent B (%b):

  Daily: 17.02, suggesting a relatively oversold condition

  Weekly: 0.6632, suggesting a relatively bullish condition

  Bandwidth:

  Daily : 5.992, indicates a relatively low level of volatility in the current market conditions

  Weekly: 7.23, indicates a moderate level of volatility in the current market conditions. The market is experiencing a period of increased volatility compared to its recent history, but not at extreme levels.

Overall Technical Outlook

The technical analysis suggests a bearish sentiment for the U.S. Dollar Index. Most moving averages and technical indicators point towards a downward trend. However, the oversold conditions indicated by RSI and Stochastic oscillators may lead to a potential short-term bounce.

Traders should be cautious of potential support levels and watch for any signs of reversal, especially given the strong trend indicated by the ADX. The low volatility suggested by the ATR may indicate a period of consolidation before the next significant move

Donald Trump’s stance on US dollar

Donald Trump's stance on the US dollar is contradictory. On one hand, he supports a strong dollar as a symbol of America's financial might and its role as the dominant global reserve currency. On the other hand, he and his advisors are advocating for a weaker dollar to boost US exports and support his protectionist trade policies.

Reasons for a Weak Dollar

1. Improve export competitiveness: A weaker dollar would make US products more affordable overseas, potentially reducing the trade deficit.

2. Support domestic manufacturing: Trump believes a "currency problem" is undermining the price competitiveness of US industry.