Jobless claims
For the week ended 2/15
For the week ending February 15, 2025, initial jobless claims in the United States rose by 5,000 to a total of 219,000, according to data released by the Labor Department. This figure aligns closely with economists' expectations, which had forecasted 215,000 claims.
Key Details:
Continuing Claims: The number of Americans receiving ongoing unemployment benefits increased to 1.869 million, up from 1.850 million the previous week.
Four-Week Average: The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased slightly to 215,250, indicating a stable trend in jobless claims despite the recent uptick.
Economic Context:
The rise in jobless claims remains within a range that has characterized the labor market over the past two years, suggesting that while there is some fluctuation, overall demand for workers remains strong. The recent job reports indicate a healthy labor market, with January seeing an addition of 143,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4%.
Despite some high-profile layoffs announced by major companies this year, such as Workday and Meta, these developments have not yet led to significant increases in jobless claims.
Jobless Claims and S&P 500
Initial jobless claims and their impact on the S&P 500 (SPX) are closely monitored by investors as indicators of economic health. Here's how they relate:
Jobless Claims Data: Initial jobless claims measure emerging unemployment, while continuing claims data measure the number of people still claiming unemployment benefits. The initial claims usually have a higher impact on the financial markets.
Market Impact:
Inverse Relationship: Markets often react inversely to jobless claims reports. A decrease in initial jobless claims typically causes the market to rally, while an increase may lead to a market slump.
Mid-Month Reports: Mid-month jobless claims reports can significantly influence the market, especially if they deviate from other recent economic indicators. A surprise drop in claims might slow down equity sellers and potentially lift stocks, particularly if there isn't much other recent data available.
