MacroXX Market Update
At MacroXX, we’re tracking the following major points that are shaping the market today:
US-Iran Deal as Catalyst: Markets will view the US-Iran peace deal as a catalyst, but we recommend caution. Despite the headlines, this deal remains highly uncertain. President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding would be signed Friday in Geneva, with initial reports suggesting the agreement would permanently reopen Hormuz and begin 60 days of negotiations. Within hours, Iran’s view proved very different. According to Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Tehran expects three conditions before any long-term process: immediate release of $12 billion in frozen assets, an immediate end to Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and significant movement toward reducing American military presence in the Gulf. Iran also said it will begin charging fees within 60 days. Delays could weigh on the market, but we expect the agreement to set a ceiling on inflation expectations. We went long on bonds two weeks ago.
Mega-IPOs: The wave of mega-IPOs is likely to keep the market elevated by boosting retail investor enthusiasm. To see how we’re playing this, follow our separate posts:
June 11, 2026: “How We’re Playing the SpaceX IPO (Without Buying It)”
June 12, 2026: “SpaceX IPO Day 1: Risks & Opportunities”
June 14, 2026: “SpaceX Trade Update: Momentum Pauses, We Stay Patient”
This morning: “RDW (Redwire Corporation)”
Note that our exact entry and exit strategies are shared exclusively with paid subscribers.
Macro Risk Peaked: Macro risk has presumably peaked. Oil prices and the inflation outlook—previously the biggest macro risks—are beginning to decline.
AI Segment Vulnerability: AI fundamentals are extremely strong, reducing risk perception. However, AI stocks are in a bubble of very high expectations and valuations, making them vulnerable.
Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates as inflation expectations stabilize. With the US-Iran deal potentially capping inflation pressures, the Fed may have more flexibility in its upcoming policy decisions, though they will likely wait for more concrete data before committing to any rate cuts.
Options Trading Is Driving Wild Intra-Day Swings Across the Market: Market prices swing sharply during the day, likely because options traders are driving most of the movement. Options traders often buy or sell stocks to protect their positions, which pushes prices up or down quickly across the market. This makes the market more unpredictable during the day — prices can jump or drop for reasons tied to options, not just company fundamentals. For your trade, this means stocks might not move smoothly toward your target and could swing wildly before settling.
Many other developments are unfolding simultaneously, but these are the key themes driving market dynamics right now.
This post is educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.