SpaceX IPO Day 1: Risks & Opportunities
We published this on June 12, 2026.
At MacroXX, we’re not participating directly in the SpaceX IPO, and we’re also not chasing it—at least for a while.
Instead, we’re taking a different approach. Below, you’ll find how we’re playing the SpaceX IPO through suppliers and related stocks instead of seeking direct exposure.
We set the portfolio up yesterday:
5 positions
All options
Plan: Take profit and exit tomorrow
This strategy lets us capture the momentum and hype surrounding the IPO while avoiding the risks of direct ownership. The suppliers and ecosystem companies often move in tandem with the main event, giving us a clean way to trade the narrative.
This is a short-term setup. We’ll lock in gains and step back when the time is right.
Stay tuned for the watchlist below, and let’s see how the market reacts.
Chasing a hot IPO on Day 1 is notoriously risky. The new rules create a first-day frenzy that’s different from traditional IPOs.
The first trading day of SpaceX’s IPO will be unlike any we’ve seen before. New Nasdaq rules and a staggered lock-up create a unique setup with both massive opportunities and serious risks.
As you know, we’re participating through suppliers, related stocks, and ETFs. We’ll be looking to exit today and cash in tidy gains on these positions, which we opened on 6/10/26. So far, all five positions we shared with our paid subscribers are highly profitable due to the leveraged effect of the option strategy.
If you haven't positioned yourself yet, you can follow the strategy we've laid out for you below.
The Opportunities
The biggest opportunity is index arbitrage. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days, which means forced ETF buying by QQQ and other funds. We’re also seeing a likely initial price pop of 10-30%+ on Day 1 due to extreme scarcity and retail demand. SpaceX reserved 30% of the IPO for retail investors, triple the usual 10% allocation. Passive buying is essentially certain since SpaceX’s market cap will automatically give it index weight. And analysts expect institutional demand to build after the Day 15 inclusion.
The Risks
The first major risk is an artificially inflated price. The Day 1 pop likely won’t be sustainable because it’s driven by only 3% of shares being publicly tradable versus a 3x multiplier effect in index calculations. Volatility will be extreme due to the tiny float and low liquidity, leading to wild swings on Day 1.
There’s also no insider selling on Day 1. Only SpaceX is selling shares — no founders or early investors — which means no “smart money” exit signal. Staggered sell pressure is coming: five unlocks of 7% between Days 70-135 plus 28% after Q3 earnings, so volatility is spread over six months rather than concentrated at Day 180.
SpaceX won’t join the S&P 500 for one year, so VOO won’t buy yet, limiting passive inflows.
What Should You Do?
For Day 1 traders, buying on Day 1 is risky. We recommend waiting because the price is likely inflated and volatility will be extreme. Selling on Day 1 is a good idea if you got IPO allocation — take a quick 10-20% gain. Our best approach recommendation is to wait and see until Day 15-20 for ETF inclusion clarity.
For long-term investors, buying immediately is too risky. Wait for a correction after the Day 15 ETF influx. The best strategy for value investors is to wait three to six months and see post-Q2 and Q3 earnings sell pressure.
Key Dates to Watch
Day 1: IPO trading begins. Price pop likely, volatility extreme.
Day 7: Market cap evaluation. If SpaceX is in the top 40 of Nasdaq 100, a fast-entry announcement comes.
Day 8-10: 5-day advance notice. ETFs start positioning for inclusion.
Day 15: Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Massive automatic ETF buying happens.
Day ~70: Q2 earnings plus 20% unlock. First major sell pressure hits.
Day 180: All shares unlocked. Final unlock, but pressure already spread out.
This post is educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.