Week 31 (July 28-August 3, 2025)

The July jobs report was the big headline, revealing the weakest job growth in nearly two years. The U.S. unemployment rate for July 2025, released last week, rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. This surprisingly soft report led financial markets to bet heavily on a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September. Despite this labor softness, major S&P 500 tech companies continued delivering strong earnings and ongoing investment in AI, helping to steady equity market sentiment.

Economic momentum endures, but fragility is increasingly apparent. The weak US jobs report has shifted focus to the Fed, as rate cuts seem more likely.

Globally, modest growth persists despite high tariffs and policy uncertainty, with cautious optimism fueled by resilient tech sector performance. Worldwide economic growth is now expected to reach 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, which marks an increase compared to the projections made in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.